TEEN FOR GREEN

Thursday, 16 April 2009 | 13:56 WIB
COLORADO, KOMPAS.com - Threats global warming can still be removed in a number of very large if all countries cut-out of greenhouse gases, which trap heat, up to 70 percent in this century, so the results of a new analysis.

Although global temperatures will rise, some aspects of climate change the most potentially dangerous to, including the loss of Arctic sea ice and frozen ground and the increase in surface sea water light, can be avoided.

Study, led by several scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), planned to broadcast next weekend in Geophysical Research Letters. Research was funded by the Department of Energy and National Science Foundation, penaja NCAR.

"This research shows we can no longer avoid the warming light during this century," said NCAR scientist Warren Washington, leading researchers.

Average temperatures worldwide have increased warm near 1 degree celsius (nearly 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial era. Most of the warming caused by greenhouse gases out that the man, especially carbon dioxide.

Gases trap heat that it has increased the level of pre-industrial era, about 284 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere so more than 380 ppm today.

While the study shows that the additional warming of 1 degree celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) may be the beginning of the dangerous climate change, the EU has been a dramatic reduction in call-out gas and carbon dioxide gases. U.S. Congress also are discussing the problem.

In order to assess the impact of such reduction of the climate in the world, Washington, and colleagues conducted a global study superkomputer using the Community Climate System Model, which is based on the NCAR.

Assumes they are, the level of carbon dioxide can be maintained at 450 ppm in the number of this century. That number comes from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which has been set as a 450 ppm target is achieved if the world can quickly adjust the action and preservation of new green technology to reduce the gas-out dramatically.

Conversely, out of gas now is in the path to the 750 ppm level in 2100 at the latest if not brought under control.

Results showed that the team is put on carbon dioxide level of 450 ppm, global temperatures will rise as much as 0.6 degrees celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) above the current record until the end of this century.

Conversely, the study showed, the temperature will rise nearly as much as four times that number, so 2.2 degrees celsius (4 degrees Fahrenheit) above the note at this time, if left out of gas continues on track at this time.

Holding the level of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm the number will have impact on others, such studies estimated that the climate example.

The increase in surface sea water due to increase in summer because the water temperature menghangat will be 14 centimeters (about 5.5 inches) and not 22 centimeters (8.7 inches). Increase of light surface sea water is estimated to occur due to liquefaction akan layers and glacier ice.

The volume of Arctic ice in the summer shrink as much as a quarter and is estimated to be stable in 2100 at the latest. A research has been stated, the summer ice will disappear altogether in this century if the gas-out remains on the level at this time.

Arctic warming will be reduced so that half the population to help preserve the fish and sea birds and marine mammals in the animal region at the north such as the Bering Sea.

Regional changes in light snow, including a decrease in snow in the U.S. Southwest and the increase in Norhteast U.S. and Canada, will be reduced to half if the gas can be out on the level of 450 ppm.

Weather system that will be stable until around 2100, and not hold menghangat. Research team is using the simulation superkomputer order to compare the usual scenario of events through-out dramatic reduction of carbon dioxide that began in about a decade.

The author of the study are stressed, they do not examine how such a reduction can be achieved or recommend a particular policy.

"Our goal is to provide policy for the appropriate research so that they can make a decision after obtaining information," said Washington.

"This study provides a hope that we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if people can reduce the amount of filth in the large for some decades to come and continue along the main reduction of this century.

INDONESIAN VERSION :
Kamis, 16 April 2009 | 13:56 WIB
COLORADO, KOMPAS.com — Ancaman pemanasan global masih dapat dihilangkan dalam jumlah sangat besar jika semua negara memangkas buangan gas rumah kaca, yang memerangkap panas, sampai 70 persen pada abad ini, demikian hasil satu analisis baru.

Meskipun temperatur global akan naik, sebagian aspek perubahan iklim yang paling berpotensi menimbulkan bahaya terhadap, termasuk kehilangan besar es laut Kutub Utara dan tanah beku serta kenaikan mencolok permukaan air laut, dapat dihindari.

Studi tersebut, yang dipimpin oleh beberapa ilmuwan dari National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), direncanakan disiarkan pekan depan di dalam Geophysical Research Letters. Penelitian itu didanai oleh Department of Energy dan National Science Foundation, penaja NCAR.

"Penelitian ini menunjukkan kita tidak lagi dapat menghindari pemanasan mencolok selama abad ini," kata ilmuwan NCAR Warren Washington, pemimpin peneliti tersebut.

Temperatur rata-rata global telah bertambah hangat mendekati 1 derajat celsius (hampir 1,8 derajat fahrenheit) sejak era pra-industri. Kebanyakan pemanasan disebabkan oleh buangan gas rumah kaca yang dihasilkan manusia, terutama karbon dioksida.

Gas yang memerangkap panas itu telah naik dari tingkat era pra-industri sekitar 284 bagian per juta (ppm) di atmosfer jadi lebih dari 380 ppm hari ini.

Sementara penelitian tersebut memperlihatkan bahwa pemanasan tambahan sebesar 1 derajat celsius (1,8 derajat fahrenheit) mungkin menjadi permulaan bagi perubahan iklim yang berbahaya, Uni Eropa telah menyerukan pengurangan dramatis buangan gas karbon dioksida dan gas rumah kaca. Kongres AS juga sedang membahas masalah itu.

Guna mengkaji dampak pengurangan semacam itu terhadap iklim di dunia, Washington dan rekannya melakukan kajian superkomputer global dengan menggunakan Community Climate System Model, yang berpusat di NCAR.

Mereka berasumsi, tingkat karbon dioksida dapat dipertahankan pada angka 450 ppm pada penghujung abad ini. Jumlah tersebut berasal dari US Climate Change Science Program, yang telah menetapkan 450 ppm sebagai sasaran yang bisa dicapai jika dunia secara cepat menyesuaikan tindakan pelestarian dan teknologi hijau baru guna mengurangi buangan gas secara dramatis.

Sebaliknya, buangan gas sekarang berada di jalur menuju tingkat 750 ppm paling lambat pada 2100 jika tak dikendalikan.

Hasil tim tersebut memperlihatkan kalau karbon dioksida ditahan pada tingkat 450 ppm, temperatur global akan naik sebesar 0,6 derajat celsius (sekitar 1 derajat fahrenheit) di atas catatan saat ini sampai akhir abad ini.

Sebaliknya, studi itu memperlihatkan, temperatur akan naik hampir sebesar empat kali jumlah tersebut, jadi 2,2 derajat celsius (4 derajat fahrenheit) di atas catatan saat ini, kalau buangan gas dibiarkan terus berlanjut di jalurnya saat ini.

Menahan tingkat karbon dioksida pada angka 450 ppm akan memiliki dampak lain, demikian perkiraan studi contoh iklim itu.

Kenaikan permukaan air laut akibat peningkatan panas karena temperatur air menghangat akan menjadi 14 sentimeter (sekitar 5,5 inci) dan bukan 22 sentimeter (8,7 inci). Kenaikan mencolok permukaan air laut diperkirakan akan terjadi karena pencairan lapisan es dan gletser.

Volume es Kutub Utara pada musim panas menyusut sebanyak seperempat dan diperkirakan akan stabil paling lambat pada 2100. Suatu penelitian telah menyatakan, es musim panas akan hilang sama sekali pada abad ini jika buangan gas tetap pada tingkat saat ini.

Pemanasan Kutub Utara akan berkurang separuhnya sehingga membantu melestarikan populasi ikan dan burung laut serta hewan mamalia laut di wilayah seperti di bagian utara Laut Bering.

Perubahan salju regional secara mencolok, termasuk penurunan salju di US Southwest dan peningkatan di US Norhteast serta Kanada, akan berkurang sampai separuh kalau buangan gas dapat dipertahankan pada tingkat 450 ppm.

Sistem cuaca itu akan stabil sampai sekitar 2100, dan bukan terus menghangat. Tim penelitian tersebut menggunakan simulasi superkomputer guna membandingkan skenario peristiwa biasa melalui pengurangan dramatis buangan karbon dioksida yang dimulai dalam waktu sekitar satu dasawarsa.

Penulis kajian tersebut menegaskan, mereka tidak mengkaji bagaimana pengurangan seperti itu dapat dicapai atau menyarankan kebijakan tertentu.

"Tujuan kami ialah menyediakan bagi pembuat kebijakan penelitian yang sesuai sehingga mereka dapat membuat keputusan setelah mendapat keterangan," kata Washington.

"Studi ini menyediakan suatu harapan bahwa kita dapat menghindari dampak terburuk perubahan iklim, jika masyarakat dapat mengurangi buangan dalam jumlah besar selama beberapa dasawarsa mendatang dan melanjutkan pengurangan utama sepanjang abad ini.